Negative &Nbsp; PTA Is Hardly Optimistic.

Accompany market Worries about the "two bottom" of the global economy have increased. Global commodity prices and stock markets are in a weak downward trend. PTA has been increased by the instability of the domestic and foreign economic growth environment. In the predicament of the upstream crude oil price and the low consumption of the downstream polyester market, the decline of the PTA price in early April has continued to this day. It has dropped from the highest point of 8766 yuan / ton in early April to the lowest level of 7090 yuan / ton in recent years, or nearly 19.12%.

External bad oil frequently hit hard

Crude oil prices fluctuated steadily from the beginning of the year to the beginning of April in the range of 70 to 80 US dollars / barrel, and they maintained a high price of 8000 yuan / ton for the PTA period. But with the expansion of the euro sovereign debt crisis and the shortage of crude oil stocks, the price of crude oil dropped from the highest level of 89 US dollars / barrel in May to the lowest level of 67 US dollars / barrel in the near future, with a drop of nearly 25%. PTA is a downstream product of crude oil. crude oil A sharp drop in prices has resulted in the collapse of PTA's sustained strong price from both cost and psychology, which has prevented the cost support of PTA's price rise from the source.

　　 PX Price drop volume increased polyester consumption sluggish

Since the price of crude oil has fallen below 70 US dollars / barrel, the price of the international PX market has plummeted, with a daily drop of US $10-30 / ton. With the number of new production capacity put into operation last year, the pressure of overcapacity appears, and the production profit level of PX links has dropped to the lowest level in history. Asian PX prices have dropped by 18% in recent years, and their cost support for PTA has weakened significantly.

At present, the domestic tightening monetary policy and the policy of suppressing the real estate have been gradually promulgated, which has directly repelled the enthusiasm of market bulwark, while the foreign sovereign debt crisis has been expanding continuously, and the price of crude oil has continued to go down. According to CCF data, in May, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped from 80% to 70%. The demand for polyester polyester will naturally drop, and the pressure on polyester products will increase. The demand for raw materials for polyester enterprises will also be affected.

Domestic policy tightening, textile exports blocked

The expansion of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis and the pressure of RMB appreciation pressure directly form a certain pressure on domestic textile exports. The unemployment rate in developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan is still at a high level. The economy is down and the finance is tightening. The demand will continue to decline. With the continued depreciation of the euro, the passive appreciation of the renminbi will be an indisputable fact. On the whole, the export situation of cotton textile industry in the second quarter may show a clear downward trend. As the economy will face the risk of overall decline, the textile industry will face greater pressure, and the demand for goods will also decline, and textile exports will be blocked.

To sum up, based on the weak basic situation of the PTA upstream and downstream industry chain, the overall operation of the PTA market is still dominated by a partial direction and there is no requirement for reversal. In the context of frequent internal and external flashes, PTA is hardly optimistic in the near future.